2025 Oscar nomination predictions

Generally in order of likelihood of nomination, here are my final predictions for the 97th Academy Awards nominees. My strategy for this year is avoiding other people's predictions and ignoring the BAFTA longlist, which has been my downfall in predicting several times. I don't have the Award Expert app, so you'll unfortunately have to just imagine the movie posters/pictures of actors. I might edit before the announcement.

Best Picture

  1. Emilia Pérez
  2. Conclave
  3. The Brutalist
  4. Anora
  5. A Complete Unknown
  6. Wicked
  7. Dune: Part Two
  8. The Substance
  9. A Real Pain
  10. Nickel Boys

Alternatives: Sing Sing, Challengers, September 5, All We Imagine as Light

People seem to really be dooming Nickel Boys, and while I get why, I feel it Sing Sing's misses have been a bit more glaring. Challengers could also have a decent package, and I guess we can't ignore September 5, but I'll give the Academy some credit. Then there's AWIAL, which hasn't done great, but has a slight chance.

Best Director

  1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
  2. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
  3. Sean Baker – Anora
  4. Edward Berger – Conclave
  5. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Alternatives: Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, James Mangold – A Complete Unknown, RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light

Generic lineup, yes. Berger feels kind of snubbable but Conclave's strength makes me more confident, and Fargeat feels like a relatively safe non-Netflix international pick.

Best Actor

  1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
  2. Timothy Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
  3. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
  4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
  5. Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Alternative: Daniel Craig – Queer

This one is so hard. I keep going back and forth between Craig and Stan and each one's advantages and disadvantages. I'm going with Stan because, while vote-splitting could be an issue and Craig made SAG, he seems to have been more visible during the voting period. I'm not buying into Grant crashing the party with a performance in a non-prestigious horror movie that couldn't even with the Globe.

Best Actress

  1. Demi Moore – The Substance
  2. Mikey Madison – Anora
  3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
  4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
  5. Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here

Alternatives: Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths, Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl, Angelina Jolie – Maria

The same lineup as 90% of everyone? I can't come up with anything better. I've always felt Erivo to be snubbable, but a lot of people seem to disagree, and I don't see a reason to drop her. I feel the alternatives are very possible, but I don't buy that Anderson has to come if Curtis gets nominated, so I'm not accounting for that.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
  2. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
  3. Yura Borisov – Anora
  4. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
  5. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Alternatives: Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing, Denzel Washington – Gladiator II, Jonathan Bailey – Wicked

A top five that I actually feel pretty satisfied with. Bailey was kind of a silly SAG nom, but "Dancing Through Life" was my favorite part of Wicked, so it kind of makes sense to me.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
  2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked
  3. Isabella Rosselini – Conclave
  4. Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl
  5. Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez

Alternatives: Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown, Felicity Jones – The Brutalist, Margaret Qualley – The Substance, Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson

This is hard. I'm fine enough with the top 4, but the final slot is pretty tough. To me, it comes down to "which movie will overperform more by nomination time?", and I'm going with Emilia Pérez. I don't really buy Deadwyler, especially the logic of it being an apology nomination. Still, she's in the conversation, so I'll mention her. Then there's also the question of whether Saldaña and Grande will be considered leads instead. I don't buy it, but if that were to happen, imagine the amount of people going 1/5 here.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Anora
  2. A Real Pain
  3. The Brutalist
  4. The Substance
  5. Hard Truths

Alternatives: Challengers, September 5, All We Imagine as Light

I think the writers' branch affinity for Mike Leigh will overcome the BAFTA snub and distributor, especially as Hard Truths isn't some super obscure movie.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Conclave
  2. Emilia Pérez
  3. A Complete Unknown
  4. Nickel Boys
  5. Sing Sing

Alternatives: Wicked, Dune: Part Two, I'm Still Here

I changed my mind after USC Scripter noms – If Wicked missed there for The Wild Robot I don't have much reason to predict it here. I thought it could pull a Top Gun: Maverick but that doesn't seem as likely.

Best Animated Feature Film

  1. Flow
  2. The Wild Robot
  3. Inside Out 2
  4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
  5. Memoir of a Snail

Alternative: Moana 2, I guess

Feels like a predictable lineup, unless the Academy decides to be extra lame this year.

Best International Feature Film

  1. Emilia Pérez
  2. Kneecap
  3. I'm Still Here
  4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
  5. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

Alternatives: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle, Flow, basically anything

My International Feature predictions tend to be a bit bland, but this year seems a bit interesting. Considering BAFTA's pretty obvious love of the movie, I can't not include Kneecap, even if I initially thought it might be too abrasive for the category. 3 and 4 are likely but definitely not locked. I put Millions in because it just kind of makes sense to me as an accessible and likable film.

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Daughters
  2. No Other Land
  3. Black Box Diaries
  4. Sugarcane
  5. Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Alternatives: Yes

Well, what to put here? Last year, I went 2/5, only getting the season's frontrunner and Bobi Wine, which I saw was on the rise. Otherwise, I put too much stock in the BAFTA longlist, which did not include four of the eventual Oscar nominees. My picks are a mix of BAFTA noms and stuff that sounds right to me and isn't an artist documentary.

Best Documentary Short Subject

  1. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
  2. I Am Ready, Warden
  3. Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World
  4. Incident
  5. Death By Numbers

Alternatives: Anything, but I have a feeling about Instruments of a Beating Heart

Like a lot of people, I don't want to stray away from Gold Derby's rankings with the shorts. I watched a number of shortlisted ones to maybe get a better understanding, but I don't trust my own judgment very much when it comes to their chances at the Oscars.

Best Live Action Short Film

  1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
  2. The Masterpiece
  3. An Orange from Jaffa
  4. Anuja
  5. Dovecote

Alternatives: I feel like A Lien would make sense, otherwise whatever

I was tempted to diverge from Gold Derby but I'm not that brave. Are people only predicting Dovecote because Zoe Saldaña's in it? To me, it didn't feel particularly substantial or in line with what the branch usually nominates, but I'm not the expert.

Best Animated Short Film

  1. A Bear Named Wojtek
  2. Beautiful Men
  3. Yuck!
  4. Wander to Wonder
  5. A Crab in the Pool

Alternatives: Not feeling Au Revoir Mon Monde or Origami, but anything goes

Makes sense, nothing overly corporate.

Best Original Score

  1. Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
  2. Volker Bertelmann – Conclave
  3. Camille and Clément Ducol – Emilia Pérez
  4. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Challengers
  5. Alberto Iglesias – The Room Next Door

Alternatives: Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot, Robin Carolan – Nosferatu, John Powell and Stephen Schwartz – Wicked, Hans Zimmer – Blitz, Bryce Dessner – Sing Sing

No lineup really looks right to me, so I'm predicting Iglesias to crash the party. Why? Mostly just vibes, there seems to be a curveball every year in this category.

Best Original Song

  1. "El Mal" – Emilia Pérez
  2. "Mi Camino" – Emilia Pérez
  3. "The Journey" – The Six Triple Eight
  4. "Never Too Late" – Elton John: Never Too Late
  5. "Harper and Will Go West" – Will & Harper

Alternatives: "Compress/Repress" – Challengers, "Kiss the Sky" – The Wild Robot, "Like a Bird" – Sing Sing, "Winter Coat" – Blitz, "Piece by Piece" – Piece by Piece

I don't want to be completely boring with my picks. The Elton John song sounds like a typical song the branch would like from a massive figure in the music industry and the Will & Harper song seems like the right type of irreverent but heartfelt. The first two alternatives don't sound Oscar-y enough to me in different ways, but they, and most of the songs on the shortlist, really, stand a solid chance.

Best Sound

  1. Dune: Part Two
  2. Wicked
  3. Gladiator II
  4. Emilia Pérez
  5. A Complete Unknown

Alternatives: Blitz, Alien: Romulus, Joker: Folie à Deux, The Wild Robot

I feel like everything except Deadpool & Wolverine could get nominated. This lineup is on the safe side since while I'm aware the sound branch tends to not be too Best Picture-focused, such as not picking EEAAO and Barbie, I don't know which one I'd take out for a less obvious pick.

Best Production Design

  1. Wicked
  2. The Brutalist
  3. Dune: Part Two
  4. Nosferatu
  5. Gladiator II

Alternatives: Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez

Not terribly confident, but I think this could pay off. Napoleon didn't need a BAFTA mention here so I don't think GII needed it either.

Best Cinematography

  1. The Brutalist
  2. Conclave
  3. A Complete Unknown
  4. Emilia Pérez
  5. Maria

Alternatives: Nosferatu, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Girl with the Needle

This is actually kind of hard to predict, so I have a mix of BAFTA and ASC and using intuition to guess what the branch would exclude. Even with seven nominees, Maria's ASC nod feels like enough for it to get in here. Dune feels like another sequel snub and Nosferatu could be another The Batman. Actually, I guess Dune is also The Batman in my scenario.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. The Substance
  2. Emilia Pérez
  3. Nosferatu
  4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
  5. Dune: Part Two

Alternatives: Waltzing with Brando, A Different Man, Wicked, The Apprentice

I went back and forth between Dune and Brando but I'm going with Dune even though I'm a bit nervous with it being a sequel with not much new stuff. Brando looks insanely baity (meaning impressive, not derogatory) but I just don't feel confident in predicting it for whatever reason.

Best Costume Design

  1. Wicked
  2. A Complete Unknown
  3. Nosferatu
  4. Blitz
  5. Gladiator II

Alternatives: Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, Maria

I don't know. I'm mostly going by BAFTA since there's pretty good correlation. I feel like I'm putting too much faith in Gladiator and Nosferatu when it's common for me to underestimate Best Picture nominees, but I wouldn't have the best reasoning for substituting them.

Best Film Editing

  1. Emilia Pérez
  2. Conclave
  3. Anora
  4. Dune: Part Two
  5. Challengers

Alternatives: The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, September 5

Another wild category. Time will tell how wrong I am, but I find that Challengers fits as the rare non-Best Picture nominee with flashy enough editing to make it.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Dune: Part Two
  2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
  3. Better Man
  4. Wicked
  5. Gladiator II

Alternatives: Twisters, Mufasa: The Lion King, Alien: Romulus, Deadpool & Wolverine, Civil War

Yes, the BAFTA five. Yes, I think all of the shortlist has a chance. I didn't think I'd be putting GII in my final predictions but at this point anything fits and I don't see a particular advantage anything else has. At least I'm reasonably confident in the top four.