Why You Shouldn’t Have Scarcity Mindset with Points & Miles

I'd even say this goes for transferrable points, but certainly for program specific points. Here's why based on my experience, and those of friends I watched save too many points...

Until the pandemic, over half my points came from signup bonuses which weren't as large back then (50k each for CSP, Citi Premier & AMEX Gold). I focused on aspirational First Class which wasn't as competitive to book as now, here's what I paid vs what it costs now: - 60k United miles: ANA First + Thai First: Tokyo to Sydney via SIN & BKK. Neither route is served w/ First now - 132k miles for JFK - FRA - SIN - HKG in Singapore Suites. It's generally only available for 265k miles at Advantage rates these days. - 70k Alaska miles for JAL First HND to JFK. It's 110k Alaska miles now, or 135k AsiaMiles which is the only way to reliably book it (80k AA miles can only book cancellations or the now-nexistant last minute releases) - 90k Lifemiles for ANA First Class HND - JFK on the new config. 120k now (and VS, ANA programs had devals too) - 150k Alaska miles for Emirates First Class on the 6-seat 777 w/ Virtual windows, Dubai to JFK. Emirates charges more in their own currency to book this now, and $1k+ in fuel ⛽️.

How many of these do I regret spending the points on, despite being nearly all my points in some cases? Zero

How many awards am I sad I missed because of lack of points? Also zero. I didn't search for what I couldn't afford lol.

Now, some misses from my friends over the years: - Spent 30k instead of 40k miles for angle-flat Biz on BKK => Sydney vs First. Has still never flown First - Opened 18 credit cards in 2018, has only flown Biz twice due to indecision about value & unfortunate COVID cancellations. - Transferred 80k miles to KoreanAir during the Chase partnership, waited to try booking until after the pandemic when awards vanished. Is using them for roundtrio economy instead of one-way First. - In early 2023, missed booking ANA First for 121k United miles (which they had) online because they were waiting for the VS phone lines to open, to book for 55k points. They ended up with no First seat at all.

So... saving rarely works out. If you see a reasonable award available and have the points, book it.

The only situation(s) I'd save and wait? If an airline has reliable releases at calendar open, you can only book with their currency (SQ or CX), and they devalued relatively recently. I'm planning to save AMEX & C1 points for the next year or so to have enough to book CX First or JAL First at schedule opening.

Oh, and don't blow those 750k Skymiles or 650k United miles all at once! At least wait for a 300k/200k redemption